Live win probability, priced against the market

League

Verified game feed

NCAA · 11/5 - 7:30 PM EST

ESPN public feed

UTSA

0:0

11/5 - 7:30 PM EST

FAU

UTSA goalUTSA ball · 1st & 10FAU goal

Possession

UTSA

Down & distance

1st & 10

Field

75 yds to goal

Timeouts

UTSA 3 · FAU 3

Last: No play posted

Model · UTSA win

band 58.8%–69.8%

64.3%Fair −180

drive: TD 17% / FG 23% / none 60% · 24 possessions projected

Enter both prices

A market comparison needs both sides of the moneyline.

Live play-by-play

Newest first · 0 plays

No play-by-play has been posted for this game.

Outcome distribution

UTSA by 8+

46.3%

UTSA by 4–7

9.9%

UTSA by 1–3

7.2%

Tie

2.3%

FAU by 1–3

6.6%

FAU by 4–7

7.7%

FAU by 8+

19.9%

Projected final score · college model

seconds/150 baseline · 60:00 of game clock left

UTSA

–

FAU

Winner

UTSA 64.3%

Margin

7 pts

Proj. total

72.5 vs 72.5

Confidence

medium

Versus the spread

FAU +7.0 covers52.5%

UTSA -7.0 covers47.5%

Versus the total 72.5

Over 72.550.0%

Under 72.550.0%

UTSA by 8+46.3%

FAU by 8+19.9%

UTSA by 4–79.9%

All other outcomes23.9%

Pace-blended projection: 72.5 more points expected · ±10.5 on the total · projection tracks the live feed, not a guarantee.

Forecast · what moves this number

Every row is the same model re-run on a changed game state, against FAU. Base right now: 35.7% · cover 52.5%.

If the clock just runs

Halftime

30:00 left · score unchanged

41.7% +6.0pt

cover 65.5%

End of 3rd

15:00 left · score unchanged

46.8% +11.0pt

cover 78.5%

Final whistle

0:00 left · score unchanged

50.0% +14.3pt

cover 99.5%

If the next score goes…

FAU touchdown next

≈2:45 of clock burned · 57:15 left

53.4% +17.7pt

cover 70.5%

FAU field goal next

≈2:45 of clock burned · 57:15 left

43.4% +7.7pt

cover 61.1%

UTSA touchdown next

≈2:45 of clock burned · 57:15 left

21.3% −14.4pt

cover 36.0%

UTSA field goal next

≈2:45 of clock burned · 57:15 left

29.4% −6.4pt

cover 45.9%

Point spread & ticket

Live spread (FAU pts) — type the line you can get

Game state — set where the game actually is

QuarterClock left in quarter

UTSA scoreFAU score

UTSA 0 – FAU 0 · 60:00 of game clock left · from the live feed

Live total (O/U) — type the number you can get

FAU juice UTSA juice

Stake · $50.00

No-vig

—

Edge

—

DraftKings feed · spread 7.0 · juice defaults to -110

Position manager

Enter the current price for both sides to calculate the original UIs’ probability-weighted hedge range.

Clock leverage

estimated possessions remaining

15:00 · college seconds/150 baseline · 0 scores to erase current margin

Possession count is the input casual prices often miss. Late one-score states carry extra uncertainty.

Guardrails

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